While it’s quite the achievement to win the Presidents’ Trophy for finishing atop all other NHL teams after a taxing 82 games, rarely is regular season dominance reflected by the raising of the Cup. Perhaps it’s because of this that the two teams leading the charge in the regular season aren’t among the favorites to take the crown this season.
Why Not the Jets vs. Caps in the Finals?
With around ten games to go, only the Washington Capitals and Winnipeg Jets had a points percentage in excess of .700. Throughout the season, the two have been very impressive, with the Jets riding the elite-tier player of their blueliners and goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, and the Caps surging with Alex Ovechkin’s pursuit of a record.
That record is, of course, the regular season scoring record long held – and long thought to be unbeatable – by Wayne Gretzky. The “Great 8” has hunted down the “Great One’s” record all season, spurring WSH to becoming the highest-scoring team in the NHL. On the flip side, WPG have conceded the fewest goals.
As the season wound out, the two met in a game that could seal the Jets’ place in the playoffs. In the battle between the league’s best two teams, the Jets edged it 3-2. In the overall standings, that put WPG just one point down on WSH having played one more game. The next closest team, at the time, was eight points back of the Jets.
Despite this, when you bet on NHL hockey in the outrights markets, neither the Western Conference or Eastern Conference trailblazers are among the favorites. The Jets are out at +1000 while the Caps sit at +850. Ahead of the duo are the co-favorites, the Dallas Stars and Florida Panthers, at +600. So, what’s holding them back?
Exploring the Stanley Cup Stats
Winning the Presidents’ Trophy is somewhat cursed. On only eight occasions, the regular season standings topper has gone on to win the Stanley Cup. That’s a rate of 21.05 percent. Due to how unpredictable the playoffs always prove to be, statisticians tend to home in on brackets and bars for success as tellers of Stanley Cup potential.
From the 2014/15 season to the 2023/24 season, the Stanley Cup winner has always had a points percentage of .600 or higher, and only STL have gone all the way without ranking in the top eight of the overall NHL standings. That year, they finished 12th, but even so, the eight-placed Lightning in 2020/21 were .670 in the truncated, 56-game campaign.
Penalty kill percentages also tend to be important. In the ten seasons through to 2021/22, nine of the ten champions were top-ten for PK% in the playoffs. In that time, seven teams remained level or improved their penalty kills from the regular season into the playoffs, and all but one of them entered with at least 81 percent on the PK. As it stands, the 83 percent of the Caps ranks third, the Jets are 14th at 80.5, and the Stars lead at 84.9 percent.
However, all NHL fans will know the power of the hot hand. Goalies make and break playoff runs, but you never quite know which goalies will hit a great run of form and which backup goalies will come in to tilt the odds. Still, with the playoffs beckoning, Hellebuyck and the Jets overall have boasted the best goaltending with a .920 SV% and 2.38 GAA per game.
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are extremely unpredictable, but overall, tipping a favorite comes down to a strong regular season showing, a very good penalty kill, top-tier goaltending, and a lot of luck with injuries.
