It has been 14 years since England last won a Test in Australia. 2011 was also the last time they lifted the Ashes Down Under.
Since then, there has been trauma and bruising, from Mitchell Johnson’s demolition job in 2013 to the more recent lessons dished out by Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, and Steve Smith.
England travel this time not just to face a formidable Australian side, but a cauldron of noise, heat, and expectation that has undone better teams before them.
The Odds and Early Predictions
As such, the latest Ashes odds predict that this England team will wilt once more under the unforgiving Australian sun. Brendon McCullum’s men are priced at +188 to win the first Test in Perth, while the hosts are -163 favorites to draw first blood.
Furthermore, if you were to place a cricket bet on the outright winner of the Ashes, you would find England listed at +180. In short, the pre-Ashes picture suggests another uphill struggle.
So, what do Ben Stokes and his side need to do to win the Ashes and upset the early predictions?
Playing Fearless, Not Foolish
If England are to rewrite the script, they must first believe that what happened in 2013, 2017, and 2021 no longer defines them.
Those tours were dominated by Australian quicks. Johnson’s short-pitched thunder had England running scared, while in 2017, Smith piled on runs for fun and walked away as Player of the Series, a reminder of just how punishing he can be when conditions suit.
Then, in 2021, Cummins and Hazlewood’s discipline left England’s batting looking technically fragile. This time, the dynamic is different. Under Stokes and McCullum, England’s approach is built on conviction rather than caution.
To that end, Mark Waugh, one of Australia’s most respected analysts after a distinguished career in the baggy green, believes England’s only route to success is to be bold. Sitting back in Australian conditions does not work.
The Kookaburra ball offers little movement after 20 overs, and if you allow Australia to dictate the tempo, the crowd and scoreboard pressure all begin to build.
England must attack, score quickly, keep the fielders moving, and force the bowlers away from their preferred lengths. You might say they only need to follow the Bazball blueprint, according to Waugh.
Picking the Right XI
Of course, that does not mean recklessness; it means clarity, as England’s top order must set the tone. Ben Duckett’s quick scoring can transfer pressure, while Zak Crawley needs to turn eye-catching stroke play into reliability, which is admittedly easier said than done for a batsman whose demons of inconsistency still lurk.
Still, if the duo can consistently blunt the new ball, the middle order, anchored by the irrepressible Joe Root and the fiery Stokes, can attack spinners and weary seamers rather than fight to survive.
If the batting can lay a solid platform, the bowlers will have the freedom to attack rather than defend, and that is where this series might tilt. England’s pace attack, if fit, is tailor-made for Australian pitches.
Mark Wood’s speed and Jofra Archer’s precision can rattle any batting lineup, especially on a bouncy Perth pitch. Past mistakes, resting and rotating too heavily, cannot be repeated. England must pick their strongest XI every time and go all in.
Stokes the Key
Notwithstanding the role both batters and bowlers must play over the five-Test series, everything ultimately circles back to Stokes. His leadership, belief, and all-around skill are England’s heartbeat.
When he is fit and firing, England look like a different side, capable of dictating play rather than reacting passively as so many of his predecessors did.
The reality is that England will need a lot to go their way and perhaps a slice of luck, but if Stokes can keep his side playing with belief and purpose, there is no reason this Ashes cannot be the one that finally turns in their favor.
