America’s biggest horse race is just around the corner. The 2025 Kentucky Derby – the 151st running of the prestigious event – looks to have a strong field, but it has a clear favorite in Journalism. There’s plenty to like about Journalism’s chances – four wins from five, good trainer and jockey combination, great speed figures – so he fits the profile as a potential Kentucky Derby winner.
On the other hand, if you’ve backed the favorites when betting on the Kentucky Derby over recent years, you’ll have ended up disappointed. There’s been plenty of value in the race across the last six or seven runnings, including 80/1 winners like Rich Strike (2022). Double-figure odds winners have been more common than short-priced winners since 2018, and it could easily happen again in 2025.
By all means, Journalism could go on to justify his favorite status, but we’ve picked five candidates who could give him a run for his money:
1. Sovereignty 7/1
Horses for courses and all that, so if you look back at Sovereignty’s barnstorming performances at Churchill Downs in the Street Sense Stakes last October, you can see why he has been knocking about the top of the betting markets ever since. He beat Tiztastic – another contender for the 2025 Derby – by 5 lengths in that race. He’s a closer, so he will need a bit of good fortune to get his position right, but jockey Junior Alvarado should be up to the task.
2. Tappan Street 12/1
Tappan Street has been in touching distance of victory in each of his career starts, winning twice and finishing just behind Burnham Square (see below) in another. He defeated Sovereignty in the Florida Derby in late March. While he doesn’t have the experience of some horses lining up for this race, it’s clear he is progressing quickly in his career so far. It’s going to take a step up to win the Kentucky Derby, but he has that step up in him. Having Brad Cox as a trainer is very much in the plus column, too.
3. Luxor Café 10/1
There is a sense that, sooner or later, a Japanese-trained horse will win the Kentucky Derby, and we came oh-so-close last year with Forever Young (T O Password ran a fine race, too). Luxor Café has turned a few heads this season, winning four from four starts in Japan. The Kentucky Derby feels like a step up in quality, and it’s not abundantly clear whether Luxor Café will be able to handle the extra distance. Yet, there is a sense of a wild card element about a very classy horse. One for the braver bettors.
4. Burnham Square 14/1
There is no rule whatsoever that the points leader on the Road to the Kentucky Derby will be in the mix or even do well when it comes to the Derby itself. But there is much to be enthusiastic about with Burnham Square. He’ll be ridden by Brian Hernandez Jnr, who has a great record at Churchill Downs. His recent performance in the Blue Grass Stakes also proves he can handle the test as a closer in the Derby. Look out for the price on him; if it moves, it may be worth considering a value bet, and he also looks like a good proposition for a place.
5. Rodriguez 20/1
Let’s finish with a horse from a trainer who is going to get a massive amount of attention on Kentucky Derby Day. Bob Baffert is making his long-awaited return to the Kentucky Derby race, and he will be bringing Rodriguez and Citizen Bull to try to win the race for a record 7th time. Preference is for the former. Citizen Bull hasn’t looked that impressive in recent months (although he could bounce back), but Rodriguez looks a natural fit with jockey Mike Smith. Rodriguez is a pacesetter, so Smith needs to get his tactics on point, but for our money, Rodriguez is the most intriguing name on this list.
