One game. One championship. And one CFL pick Frankie the Fan isn’t afraid to put his money on.
Frankie the Fan breaks down the 113th Grey Cup
The 113th Grey Cup is set for Sunday, November 15, as the Montreal Alouettes take on the Edmonton Elks in Calgary. Edmonton brings a Cinderella story and a quarterback looking for revenge, but Montreal brings experience, firepower, and unfinished business.
Our resident handicapper, Frankie the Fan, breaks down the Grey Cup odds, point spread, key matchups, and the storylines that could decide the championship, and provide with best Grey Cup betting picks and CFL predictions.
Frankie explains why he’s going against his usual underdog instincts and backing Montreal to win big and cover the spread.
The Montreal Alouettes and Edmonton Elks meet in the 113th Grey Cup on Sunday, Nov. 15, at McMahon Stadium in Calgary, and the books have Montreal as a 3.5-point favorite.
Let me tell you something right off the bat. I’m a dog guy. Not the four-legged kind, although I like those too. The underdog. When the whole world runs to one side of the boat, I usually check the other side. That’s where the smart money hides, and most weeks that’s where you’ll find me.
Not this week. This week I’m laying the points, and I’ll tell you why.
How They Got Here
On Nov. 7, both division finals went to the favorite.
In the East, Montreal beat Winnipeg 33-23. Davis Alexander threw for 373 yards, and the Alouettes did what good teams do. They took Winnipeg’s mistakes and made them hurt. A fumble here, a strip-sack there, and the Blue Bombers were done.
Zach Collaros played through busted ribs and gave them a real shot in the second half, and I tip my cap to him. Usually I’m with the tough guys. A team that shows up in hoodies ready for a street fight can beat a better team any day of the week. But tough only gets you so far when you keep handing the other team the ball.
In the West, Edmonton beat BC 28-16. Cody Fajardo ran one in and threw for another. Give the Elks credit, they hung in there after BC tied it at 16 in the fourth quarter. But a lot of what happened down the stretch came off BC’s own penalties.
Unnecessary roughness, twice, when you’re tied in a playoff game? That’s not football, that’s a guy picking a fight at a wedding. Edmonton just stood there and took the free yards.
Why Montreal Is Just Better
Let’s start with the record. Montreal went 14-4, the best record in the league. Edmonton went 13-5. Okay, that’s one game. I’m not going to sit here and pretend that’s a big gap. The records are close. The quarterbacks aren’t.
Then there’s the quarterback. Alexander has been the best quarterback in the CFL this season, period. You saw what he did to Winnipeg. And he’s got Tyson Philpot to throw to, who caught 124 balls for 1,809 yards this year. That’s not a receiver. That’s a cheat code.
And here’s the part people forget. Montreal has been here. This is their third Grey Cup in four years. They won it in 2023.
They lost it last year to Saskatchewan, 25-17, and you better believe that one’s been eating at them for twelve months. A team that lost the big one last year shows up the next year with something to prove.
Edmonton? God bless ’em. Before the season, they had the longest odds of all nine teams to win the Grey Cup. They hadn’t been to the big game since 2015. It’s a great story, a real Cinderella. But Cinderella’s a fairy tale. In real life, the clock strikes midnight, and the guy with the better quarterback wins.
The Revenge Angle Everybody’s Talking About
Here’s the juicy part. These two teams have traded people, and nobody’s happy about it.
Edmonton’s quarterback, Cody Fajardo, used to play for Montreal. In 2023, he led the Alouettes to the Grey Cup and was the MVP of the game.
Then Montreal let him go. Now he’s the quarterback for Edmonton, playing against the team that showed him the door.
And it works the other way, too. Montreal’s head coach, Jason Maas, used to coach Edmonton. They fired him. Now he’s on the other sideline, trying to beat them for a championship.
So the quarterback is facing his old team, and the coach is facing his old team. Both sides have a score to settle.
The crowd hears “revenge” and figures that’s an edge for Fajardo. Maybe. Nobody’s going to want this one more than he does. But think about it from Montreal’s side.
They had this guy in their building. They know his habits, his favorite throws, what he does when he’s under pressure. Wanting it badly is great. But when the other team knows your whole playbook, wanting it only gets you so far.
The Season Series
These two split it, one apiece. Edmonton won the first one 32-29 in overtime, at home, back in Week 3. Montreal won the second one 48-30 in Week 10.
So the Edmonton fans will tell you, “Hey, we beat them.” Sure you did. Early in the year, at home, in overtime, by three. The second time, later in the season, when both teams knew who they were, Montreal put up 48 and won by 18. I’ll take the more recent one, thanks.
What About the Crowd?
Here’s the one thing that worries me a little. The game’s in Calgary, and Edmonton is about three hours up the highway. Edmonton’s even the designated home team. So you’re going to see a lot of green in those stands.
But Calgary fans and Edmonton fans? They don’t exactly hug it out. That’s like expecting Mets fans to cheer for the Yankees because they’re in the same city.
Some of those Calgary folks might be rooting for anybody but Edmonton. So I wouldn’t count on the crowd being as one-sided as people think.
The Numbers
Here’s roughly where the line sits heading into the week:
| Spread | Moneyline | |
| Montreal Alouettes | -3.5 | around -175 |
| Edmonton Elks | +3.5 | around +150 |
The total is sitting around 55.5.
Now, you notice that half point? Three and a half. The books didn’t put it at three by accident. A three-point game is a very common result in football, and that hook makes you sweat. If Montreal wins by exactly three, I lose. I know that. I’m still taking it, because I don’t think this one’s going to be that close.
Frankie’s Pick: Montreal -3.5
Better record, better quarterback, more experience on the big stage, and a team that’s been stewing over last year’s loss for twelve months.
Edmonton’s been a great story, and I’m happy for their fans. But stories don’t win championships. Quarterbacks do.
Montreal wins, and I think it’s by more than a field goal. Lay a hundred and ten to win a hundred. Check the line on sportshub.com before the weekend crowd moves it.
How to Watch the 113th Grey Cup
- When: Sunday, Nov. 15, in the evening
- Where: McMahon Stadium, Calgary
- TV in Canada: TSN, CTV and RDS, with streaming on Crave
- Everywhere else: CFL+
- Anthem: Sarah McLachlan
- Halftime show: Riley Green
So grab a beer, maybe a plate of poutine, that’s french fries with cheese curds and gravy, straight out of Quebec, Montreal’s backyard, and enjoy the last CFL game until next summer. I’ll be the guy at the bar ordering another round when Montreal’s up by ten in the fourth quarter, telling everybody I saw it coming.
