NFL underdogs often outperform expectations because point spreads give weaker teams a real shot to win outright.
There are two sides to NFL football games when it comes to wagering. There are favorites, and there are NFL underdogs.
The fact that a team is the chalk doesn’t always mean it will win, let alone cover the spread. There are many live underdogs that deserve strong consideration when betting.
What Makes an NFL Team an Underdog?
An underdog in the truest sense would be the team that is considered the weaker one or more likely to lose in a game. By sportsbooks creating NFL spreads for games, they create a balanced betting market.
Bettors may consider a team that is getting points as one that is viable to cover the spread but not win the game. On the flip side, the favorite could win the game but won’t win by enough points to cover the spread. NFL underdog teams not only have the chance to cover but also can win games outright.
There is a difference between taking points and winning outright. When playing an underdog, it is important to decide whether you think the team will simply cover or could win when wagering.
| Situation | What It Means |
| Favorite -7 | Expected to win by roughly 7 points |
| Underdog +7 | Can lose by up to 6 points and still cover |
| Underdog Wins Outright | The team beats the favorite despite being expected to lose |
Why NFL Underdogs Can Exceed Expectations
NFL underdog betting is what many savvy players do. They may not believe the team can win, but they also know the amount of points a team is getting is too great.
Just because a team is an underdog does not mean it can’t win, and it certainly doesn’t mean a team can’t cover a point spread.
Matchups Can Matter More Than Overall Records
When making NFL picks and predictions, it is important to take in a variety of factors about the game. Teams with poorer records can match up nicely against the favorites.
Some examples of what could tilt a game in the favor of an underdog: a strong rushing attack against a weak run defense, an effective pass rush against a vulnerable offensive line, a defense capable of limiting a favorite’s biggest offensive weapon, and quarterback styles that create difficult matchup problems.
This is why they play the games. Because if the favorite won every contest, there would be no reason to actually have games.
Factors that impact games are critical when deciding whether NFL upset predictions can drive your betting choices
Turnovers Can Change the Game
A game can change dramatically if a team wins the turnover battle. That means if NFL underdogs recover fumbles, or make interceptions, they can change the tone of the contest.
A turnover can lead to an underdog having a short field to drive for a score. Or it can thwart a favorite when it is close to scoring.
It is important to study the turnover category to see how teams do. Even if a team is considered weaker, if it wins the turnover battle, it can succeed.
Home Field and Familiarity
There are other external factors in NFL picks and predictions. Some teams play well at home. There is a great rush when the home crowd gets into the game.
It can provide an emotional spark. How far has the opponent traveled? And is this trip a one-off, or has it been on the road for two or three games? Divisional games always tend to be closer because of the rivalry intensity.
And when playing outdoors, weather can be a factor. Make that especially important when talking about dome teams playing on the road in tough weather conditions.
The Role of Injuries, Coaching and Game Plans
If a team is without a key player, on offense or defense, it can change the entire complexion of a game.
NFL underdog teams can see their chances improve if the favorite is without key players on either side of the ball.
Injuries to quarterbacks and key offensive players can alter a favorite’s game plan. If key defensive players are out, coaches will have to make adjustments to compensate. That means going to a different game plan.
How Underdogs Create Betting Value
So, what can make an underdog a value when considering wagering? While the team may not be considered to have a good chance to win outright, it certainly can keep it within the point spread. There are so many considerations to mull.
For instance, is the favorite dealing with important injuries? Does the underdog have a favorable matchup? Is the game being played at the underdog’s home stadium? Are recent results creating an exaggerated perception of one team? Does the spread accurately reflect the matchup?
There are so many factors that go into making a betting line. BetUS’ sportsbook takes them into consideration.
And the bettor has to think about what created the line and whether NFL underdog teams have the proper resume to cover the spread. Think, think, think about what makes an underdog live.
For bettors who want to compare the market as it moves, OddsTrader has live odds and stats that make it easier to see how prices are changing across sportsbooks.
Why Not Every NFL Underdog Is a Good Bet
There are good reasons – usually – for teams to be underdogs, such as large talent gaps, which still matter.
Look at the big picture; don’t buy into an underdog that has won a couple because it could have been against lesser competition.
One upset does not establish a reliable trend. The choice is yours, but some NFL underdogs will cover or win games while others won’t do either.
That’s the beauty of the point spread and money line because the NFL, like all sports, can be unpredictable.
The Bottom Line on NFL Underdogs
NFL underdogs can beat expectations because individual matchups and game circumstances can matter as much as overall team reputation.
Weigh the factors when it comes to whether a team is a live underdog to cover or win outright. Remember, nothing is sure.
FAQs
What is an NFL underdog?
An NFL underdog is the team sportsbooks expect to lose based on the point spread or moneyline.
Are NFL underdogs good bets?
Being an underdog alone does not make a team a good wager. The matchup, spread, team circumstances, and available odds should all be evaluated.
What should bettors look for when evaluating NFL underdogs?
Injuries, matchup statistics, recent performance, home/road splits, turnovers, coaching, and whether the point spread appears to reflect the available information.
